Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Wargame

Only 18 developers shipped a Wargame Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $1.5k. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 25 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $600 → $1.2k → $0 → $1.2k → $17k
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,235)
Top 5% $41M (exactly $41,107,927)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 63
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 70% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, RTS
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 23,119 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $41M.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Endorphin Vice · EA older $9.99 3,436 56% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,029,769) Endorphin Studios
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
Tales Of Glory 2 - Retaliation · EA older $5.99 225 66% 6.8k $40k (exactly $40,432) BlackTale Games
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
On the front line older $6.99 113 59% 3.4k $24k (exactly $23,696) Alekseev
The Siege of Brimir · EA older $11.99 49 71% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Anden Studios
No Man's Land $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) Related Designs Software
Grimstar: Crystals are the New Oil! $12.99 16 68% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) SvenRahn Games
Lord of the Click 5 $7.99 15 93% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) HugePixel
101st Airborne in Normandy $4.99 15 60% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Interactive Simulations
Armada: Last Light $9.99 5 60% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Brock Pivirotto
Forest $3.99 10 0% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Ihor Lema
BLEST $6.99 4 0% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Oedipe Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.