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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Wargame?
Wargame + Choose Your Own Adventure
Only 14 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Missile Command Delta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×30 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $148 (exactly $148) |
|---|---|
| Median | $450 (exactly $450) |
| Top 25% | $2.8k (exactly $2,848) |
| Top 5% | $19k (exactly $18,591) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 46 |
| Announced | 17 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Wargame
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Simulation
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 2.5D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 175 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 2023 · $4.3M 
Plebby Quest: The Crusades 2020 · $1.6M 
Rule the Waves 3 2023 · $1.0M 
Sea Dogs: City of Abandoned Ships 2018 · $59k 
Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales 2018 · $46k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 7,206 84% | 216k | $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) | Brilliant Game Studios |
| | Plebby Quest: The Crusades | older | $19.99 | 2,625 86% | 79k | $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) | PiedPipers Team |
| | Rule the Waves 3 | older | $39.99 | 855 87% | 26k | $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) | Naval Warfare Simulations |
| | Sea Dogs: City of Abandoned Ships | older | $7.99 | 245 76% | 7.4k | $59k (exactly $58,726) | Akella |
| | Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales | older | $11.99 | 127 62% | 3.8k | $46k (exactly $45,682) | Akella |
 | Magic Trap | older | $49.99 | 23 86% | 690 | $34k (exactly $34,493) | Gamesforgames |
 | Rescue Operation | older | $3.99 | 253 87% | 7.6k | $30k (exactly $30,284) | Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich |
 | Missile Command Delta | $19.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $19k (exactly $18,591) | 13AM Games, Mighty Yell | |
 | Field Hospital: Dr. Taylor's Story | older | $4.99 | 105 89% | 3.2k | $16k (exactly $15,718) | Gard Interactive |
 | Desert Special Forces | older | $19.99 | 20 65% | 600 | $12k (exactly $11,994) | Gamesforgames |
 | Gold Defence | $9.99 | 20 65% | 600 | $6.0k (exactly $5,994) | Gamesforgames | |
 | Bastionforge | $9.99 | 17 76% | 510 | $5.1k (exactly $5,095) | Gamesforgames | |
 | Winning Tactics | $9.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Gamesforgames | |
 | Summoner's Automata | $9.99 | 14 85% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Gamesforgames | |
 | Survalker | $9.99 | 14 85% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Gamesforgames | |
 | Clan and Crown | $9.99 | 11 45% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | alanchu | |
 | Central Bank | $18.99 | 5 0% | 150 | $2.8k (exactly $2,848) | Nabiulina software, Jerome Powerr studi… (Nabiulina software, Jerome Powerr studio, Rusalka Unreal Labs) | |
 | Story of the Olivia | $12.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) | Uğur ÇELİK | |
 | MEMOLOGY: ITALIAN MEME WAR | $0.99 | 45 97% | 1.4k | $1.3k (exactly $1,336) | Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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