Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Wargame?

Wargame + Adventure

Of 80 developers who shipped an Adventure Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 148 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×764 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 148 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 148 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $955 → $959 → $479 → $1.6k → $1.2k → $479 (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,891)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $479,760)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 332
Announced 148
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Simulation
Price point
$6.00 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $6.00.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 6,929 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 148 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M Naval Action 2019 · $6.1M VLADiK BRUTAL 2024 · $3.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator older $19.99 144,036 97% 4.3M $86M (exactly $86,378,389) Landfall
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
VLADiK BRUTAL older $11.99 9,551 89% 287k $3.4M (exactly $3,435,495) BRUTAL SOFTWARE
Carrier Command 2 older $29.99 3,444 82% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,098,567) Geometa
Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun older $19.99 3,829 66% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,296,251) ZUIJIANGYUE Game
Plebby Quest: The Crusades older $19.99 2,625 86% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) PiedPipers Team
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
IDUN - Frontline Survival $14.99 685 77% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) IDUN Interactive
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Pennon and Battle $18.99 175 69% 5.3k $100k (exactly $99,697) PB Studio
ZombieCards $5.99 232 48% 7.0k $42k (exactly $41,690) HotScent
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.