Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Wargame?

Wargame + Horror

Only 11 developers shipped a Horror Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $6.6k against a market of $630. 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 9810% on the market, 19 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $594 → $8.7k → $599 → $833k → $1.7k
Outcomes for Wargame + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $94,106)
Top 5% $833k (exactly $833,166)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 42
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 9810% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame
Price point
$9.90 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 86% positive over 3,892 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $94k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Six Days in Fallujah · EA older $39.99 13,012 79% 390k $16M (exactly $15,610,496) Highwire Games
Tannenberg older $19.99 7,644 86% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,107) Blackmill Games
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
VLADiK BRUTAL older $11.99 9,551 89% 287k $3.4M (exactly $3,435,495) BRUTAL SOFTWARE
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Yokai Art: Night Parade of One Hundred Demons older $6.99 1,132 89% 34k $237k (exactly $237,380) Secret Labo
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
After Long Night $9.99 381 72% 11k $114k (exactly $114,186) 疯狗工作室
Yokai Art 2: Tales of the Nine-Tails $9.99 314 75% 9.4k $94k (exactly $94,106) Secret Labo
FIRE STATE · EA $9.90 302 68% 9.1k $90k (exactly $89,694) UnderFire
The Dawn: Sniper's Way $24.99 18 22% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) PHOSPHORUS GAMES
EagleRoad:WorldRise $9.99 22 90% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) XuJie
The Bunker $2.99 22 90% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) Cyber752
The Lost Painter $2.99 19 100% 570 $1.7k (exactly $1,704) Ravenhome Studios
DR4X $0.99 34 88% 1.0k $1.0k (exactly $1,010) Untrustedlife
Warfront $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Michael Connelly, Drew Essary, Noah Llo… (Michael Connelly, Drew Essary, Noah Lloyd, Angello Sassarini)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.