Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Wargame?

2D Fighter + Wargame

Only 16 developers shipped a 2D Fighter Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gold Defence, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 795% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $59 → $90 → $2.2k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $6.0k (exactly $5,994)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 41
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 795% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Wargame; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Grand Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 113 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $5.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stickman Trenches older $5.99 1,922 81% 58k $345k (exactly $345,383) Big Play Games
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
Gladiators and Glory older $7.99 57 89% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Oguz Kemerli
Middle Age Conquest older $6.99 38 76% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) Musa GUNGOR
Gold Defence $9.99 20 65% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Gamesforgames
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Sword of Destiny older $0.99 131 87% 3.9k $3.9k (exactly $3,891) Talha Emre Gülap
Emoji Wars $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Total
Ninja Lexx older $5.99 20 75% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) Aleksandr Kolesnyk
Rayadillo · EA $2.99 25 84% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) Rayadillo Games
Shield Operator $4.99 10 50% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Puantaun Studio
Revolvermen $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Oskar Wetterbrandt
Kill Dee $0.99 17 82% 510 $505 (exactly $505) BYE BYE, BUYBYEGames
Knaights $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Jeremiah Zagala
Humans Vs Orcs $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) ShakyHand
Deadcave $0.99 9 100% 270 $267 (exactly $267) cnsmini

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.