Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Wargame

Of 45 developers who shipped a Wargame Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 87 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 5630% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 5630% on the market, 87 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $900 → $300 → $60 → $449 → $150 → $599 (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $52,462)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 144
Announced 87
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5630% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 4,770 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Panzer Knights older $24.99 1,896 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,421,431) 樂磚Joy Brick
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Black One Blood Brothers · EA older $17.99 1,366 78% 41k $737k (exactly $737,230) Helios Studio
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
Home Wars older $9.99 1,141 78% 34k $342k (exactly $341,958) Insane Dreamers
Boat Crew · EA older $24.99 431 89% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Tabbing Tabby
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
Maelstrom: The Battle for Earth Begins Enhanced $6.99 33 75% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) KDV Games
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Valor 1944 $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Sunroom Games
HITLER WAIFU 2 · EA $0.99 131 95% 3.9k $3.9k (exactly $3,891) Who We Are Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.