Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Wargame?

Wargame + Top-Down Shooter

Of 30 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×298 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $600 → $1.4k → $120 → $1.8k → $748 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,940)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 82
Announced 37
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 5,039 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $660, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Foxhole 2022 · $43M RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M Cleared Hot 2025 · EA · $2.1M Multi Turret Academy 2024 · EA · $480k Metal Thunder 2024 · EA · $187k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
BattleCap $11.99 159 96% 4.8k $57k (exactly $57,192) MechAlmond Productions
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
AirMech Command older $7.99 188 68% 5.6k $45k (exactly $45,064) Carbon Games
Reflex Unit: Strike Ops $15.99 75 84% 2.3k $36k (exactly $35,978) ROBOSARU Games
StarFringe: Adversus older $5.99 139 69% 4.2k $25k (exactly $24,978) Casualogic, Droid Riot
Sexy Iron Maidens $4.99 123 69% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Earl Marx
Eagles of World War 2 $9.99 15 86% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Paul Connor
Territorial Conquest $4.99 22 50% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Uğur CAN
Wartheon $3.99 17 94% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) Asilpena Games
Space Saga · EA $19.99 3 0% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Hot October

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.