Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame?

Wargame

Of 687 developers who shipped a Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,165 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1121 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 1,165 games are announced against 375 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 1,165 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 687
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $2.4k → $1.4k → $1.3k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 687
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,926)
Top 5% $704k (exactly $703,683)
Developers, 2 yr 687
Released games 2,343
Announced 1,165
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 209,001 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 418 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,165 games are announced against 375 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Wargame

148 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Wargame + Inventory Management Fair $4.6k 21 devs
  2. Wargame + Local Multiplayer Fair $3.0k 28 devs
  3. Wargame + Naval Fair $2.4k 37 devs
  4. Wargame + Tabletop Fair $1.1k 50 devs
  5. Wargame + Logic Fair $599 20 devs
  6. Real-Time with Pause + Wargame Poor odds $37k 11 devs
  7. Real-Time + Wargame Poor odds $37k 13 devs
  8. Co-op + Wargame Poor odds $21k 43 devs
  9. Stealth + Wargame Poor odds $21k 10 devs
  10. Diplomacy + Wargame Poor odds $17k 34 devs
  11. Colony Sim + Wargame Poor odds $16k 24 devs
  12. Sandbox + Wargame Poor odds $14k 82 devs
  13. Wargame + Cold War Poor odds $11k 34 devs
  14. 4X + Wargame Poor odds $10k 60 devs
  15. Class-Based + Wargame Poor odds $9.4k 14 devs
  16. Building + Wargame Poor odds $9.0k 84 devs
  17. Wargame + Modern Poor odds $8.6k 38 devs
  18. Wargame + Historical Poor odds $7.0k 157 devs
  19. Immersive Sim + Wargame Poor odds $6.6k 39 devs
  20. Wargame + Card Game Poor odds $6.4k 24 devs
  21. Wargame + Alternate History Poor odds $6.2k 61 devs
  22. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Wargame Poor odds $6.0k 12 devs
  23. Character Customization + Wargame Poor odds $5.8k 36 devs
  24. Wargame + Political Sim Poor odds $5.7k 61 devs
  25. Wargame + Roguelite Poor odds $5.4k 63 devs
  26. Base Building + Wargame Poor odds $5.4k 101 devs
  27. Action RTS + Wargame Poor odds $5.4k 55 devs
  28. Wargame + Deckbuilding Poor odds $4.8k 23 devs
  29. Wargame + Capitalism Poor odds $4.6k 20 devs
  30. Grand Strategy + Wargame Poor odds $4.4k 132 devs
  31. Wargame + Resource Management Poor odds $3.4k 100 devs
  32. Level Editor + Wargame Poor odds $3.4k 27 devs
  33. Simulation + Wargame Poor odds $3.3k 300 devs
  34. City Builder + Wargame Poor odds $3.3k 59 devs
  35. Strategy RPG + Wargame Poor odds $3.3k 58 devs
  36. RTS + Wargame Poor odds $3.3k 204 devs
  37. Crafting + Wargame Poor odds $3.1k 24 devs
  38. Wargame + Hex Grid Poor odds $3.0k 41 devs
  39. Turn-Based + Wargame Poor odds $3.0k 17 devs
  40. Physics + Wargame Poor odds $2.9k 47 devs
  41. Open World + Wargame Poor odds $2.9k 37 devs
  42. Wargame + Multiple Endings Poor odds $2.9k 20 devs
  43. Economy + Wargame Poor odds $2.8k 71 devs
  44. Management + Wargame Poor odds $2.6k 107 devs
  45. Wargame + World War II Poor odds $2.5k 59 devs
  46. Wargame + World War I Poor odds $2.5k 23 devs
  47. Wargame + Magic Poor odds $2.5k 28 devs
  48. Wargame + War Poor odds $2.4k 372 devs
  49. Real Time Tactics + Wargame Poor odds $2.4k 188 devs
  50. Naval Combat + Wargame Poor odds $2.4k 39 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Squad 2020 · $217M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator older $19.99 144,036 97% 4.3M $86M (exactly $86,378,389) Landfall
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.