Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater game?

Underwater

Of 330 developers who shipped an Underwater game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 503 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×997 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 503 games are announced against 193 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 503 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 330
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $9.1k → $1.9k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $1.2k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 330
Bottom 30% $297 (exactly $297)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,552)
Top 5% $626k (exactly $626,087)
Developers, 2 yr 330
Released games 846
Announced 503
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 383,344 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 167 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 503 games are announced against 193 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Underwater

64 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Management + Underwater Fair $5.0k 37 devs
  2. Sailing + Underwater Fair $3.9k 24 devs
  3. Resource Management + Underwater Fair $2.3k 51 devs
  4. Collectathon + Underwater Fair $2.3k 37 devs
  5. Simulation + Underwater Fair $1.8k 142 devs
  6. Point & Click + Underwater Fair $1.8k 21 devs
  7. Hidden Object + Underwater Fair $1.2k 21 devs
  8. Bullet Hell + Underwater Long shot $359 21 devs
  9. Base Building + Underwater Poor odds $41k 19 devs
  10. Online Co-Op + Underwater Poor odds $33k 21 devs
  11. Crafting + Underwater Poor odds $21k 21 devs
  12. Building + Underwater Poor odds $13k 28 devs
  13. Co-op + Underwater Poor odds $9.1k 32 devs
  14. Economy + Underwater Poor odds $7.2k 27 devs
  15. Farming Sim + Underwater Poor odds $6.4k 13 devs
  16. Open World + Underwater Poor odds $5.9k 43 devs
  17. Procedural Generation + Underwater Poor odds $3.9k 25 devs
  18. 3D Platformer + Underwater Poor odds $3.7k 20 devs
  19. Life Sim + Underwater Poor odds $3.2k 36 devs
  20. Naval Combat + Underwater Poor odds $3.0k 12 devs
  21. Physics + Underwater Poor odds $2.5k 36 devs
  22. Exploration + Underwater Poor odds $2.3k 129 devs
  23. Sandbox + Underwater Poor odds $2.3k 41 devs
  24. Survival + Underwater Poor odds $2.0k 50 devs
  25. Stealth + Underwater Poor odds $1.8k 10 devs
  26. Immersive Sim + Underwater Poor odds $1.8k 38 devs
  27. Visual Novel + Underwater Poor odds $1.8k 10 devs
  28. Puzzle + Underwater Poor odds $1.8k 38 devs
  29. Adventure + Underwater Poor odds $1.7k 137 devs
  30. Platformer + Underwater Poor odds $1.7k 18 devs
  31. Creature Collector + Underwater Poor odds $1.6k 49 devs
  32. Strategy + Underwater Poor odds $1.6k 46 devs
  33. Incremental + Underwater Poor odds $1.6k 45 devs
  34. Survival Horror + Underwater Poor odds $1.4k 21 devs
  35. Walking Simulator + Underwater Poor odds $1.3k 29 devs
  36. Roguelite + Underwater Poor odds $1.3k 31 devs
  37. Roguelike + Underwater Poor odds $1.3k 27 devs
  38. Fishing + Underwater Poor odds $1.3k 65 devs
  39. Action + Underwater Poor odds $1.2k 113 devs
  40. Tactical + Underwater Poor odds $1.2k 10 devs
  41. Action RPG + Underwater Poor odds $1.0k 13 devs
  42. Shooter + Underwater Poor odds $959 23 devs
  43. Multiple Endings + Underwater Poor odds $958 16 devs
  44. Idler + Underwater Poor odds $945 66 devs
  45. Time Management + Underwater Poor odds $899 22 devs
  46. Submarine + Underwater Poor odds $898 61 devs
  47. Action-Adventure + Underwater Poor odds $898 57 devs
  48. Choices Matter + Underwater Poor odds $600 20 devs
  49. Character Customization + Underwater Poor odds $599 31 devs
  50. Action Roguelike + Underwater Poor odds $599 26 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Subnautica 2018 · $307M Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M Raft 2022 · $194M Subnautica 2 2026 · EA · $105M Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
BioShock™ Remastered older $19.99 52,500 83% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,484,250) 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Abyssus $24.99 5,014 84% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) DoubleMoose Games
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.