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Should I ship an Underwater Simulation game?
Simulation + Underwater
Of 142 developers who shipped an Underwater Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 177 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 177 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $10,893) |
| Top 5% | $584k (exactly $584,108) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 142 |
| Released games | 310 |
| Announced | 177 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Resource Management, Fishing
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Relaxing, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 39,644 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 177 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Raft 2022 · $194M 
DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M 
Barotrauma 2023 · $65M 
Stranded Deep 2022 · $26M 
Maneater 2021 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
| | DAVE THE DIVER | older | $19.99 | 142,662 96% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $85,554,401) | MINTROCKET |
| | Barotrauma | older | $34.99 | 61,905 94% | 1.9M | $65M (exactly $64,981,678) | FakeFish, Undertow Games |
| | Stranded Deep | older | $19.99 | 43,628 74% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $26,163,712) | Beam Team Games |
| | Maneater | older | $39.99 | 21,790 87% | 654k | $26M (exactly $26,141,463) | Tripwire Interactive |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | ABZU | older | $19.99 | 21,997 93% | 660k | $13M (exactly $13,191,601) | Giant Squid |
 | Feed and Grow: Fish | · EA older | $14.99 | 20,750 78% | 623k | $9.3M (exactly $9,331,275) | Old B1ood |
 | Starsand Island | $39.99 | 5,898 76% | 177k | $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) | Seed Sparkle Lab | |
 | Cast n Chill | $14.99 | 8,383 94% | 251k | $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) | Wombat Brawler | |
 | Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 | $19.99 | 2,077 66% | 62k | $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) | Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES | |
 | DrainSim | · EA | $14.99 | 2,586 91% | 78k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) | CodePeas |
 | Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping | $7.49 | 3,386 95% | 102k | $761k (exactly $760,834) | Lunheim Studios | |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | Scale the Depths | $9.99 | 1,881 88% | 56k | $564k (exactly $563,736) | Glass Gecko Games | |
 | Modern Naval Warfare | · EA | $59.99 | 237 58% | 7.1k | $427k (exactly $426,529) | Wave Ops |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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