Games › Base Building › Base Building + Underwater
Should I ship an Underwater Base Building game?
Base Building + Underwater
Only 19 developers shipped an Underwater Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Subnautica 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $41k, ×65 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $100M, ×167407 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $6.6k (exactly $6,593) |
|---|---|
| Median | $41k (exactly $41,017) |
| Top 25% | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) |
| Top 5% | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 47 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Co-op, Open World
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 137,737 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $6.6k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Raft 2022 · $194M 
Subnautica 2 2026 · EA · $105M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M 
The Last Caretaker 2025 · EA · $14M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
| | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Sunkenland | · EA older | $19.99 | 20,536 80% | 616k | $12M (exactly $12,315,439) | Vector3 Studio |
 | Survival: Fountain of Youth | older | $27.99 | 4,095 85% | 123k | $3.4M (exactly $3,438,572) | Odinsoft Inc. |
 | Voyagers of Nera | · EA | $29.99 | 2,022 83% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) | Treehouse Games |
 | IfSunSets | · EA | $19.99 | 2,284 74% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) | POLYMORPH |
 | Project Castaway | $19.99 | 1,815 64% | 54k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) | Mardonpol Inc. | |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | Life Below | $29.99 | 150 80% | 4.5k | $135k (exactly $134,955) | Megapop | |
 | Away From Life | · EA | $12.99 | 213 66% | 6.4k | $83k (exactly $83,006) | Cursor Games |
 | Oceaneers | · EA | $24.99 | 103 86% | 3.1k | $77k (exactly $77,219) | Barrel Smash Studios |
 | Deep Crafter | · EA | $17.99 | 76 68% | 2.3k | $41k (exactly $41,017) | Deep Crafter Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.