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Should I ship an Underwater Physics game?
Physics + Underwater
Of 36 developers who shipped an Underwater Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1852 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 51 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $959 (exactly $959) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) |
| Top 25% | $9.1k (exactly $9,109) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 36 |
| Released games | 83 |
| Announced | 51 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Realistic, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 17,838 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $960. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
The Last Caretaker 2025 · EA · $14M 
DrainSim 2026 · EA · $1.2M 
Primordialis 2025 · EA · $584k 
Modern Naval Warfare 2026 · EA · $427k 
Hydrophobia: Prophecy 2011 · $296k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
| | DrainSim | · EA | $14.99 | 2,586 91% | 78k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) | CodePeas |
| | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
| | Modern Naval Warfare | · EA | $59.99 | 237 58% | 7.1k | $427k (exactly $426,529) | Wave Ops |
| | Hydrophobia: Prophecy | older | $4.99 | 1,978 60% | 59k | $296k (exactly $296,107) | Dark Energy Digital Ltd. |
 | FISHERY | · EA older | $19.99 | 375 83% | 11k | $225k (exactly $224,887) | Lilou Studio |
 | Sipho | older | $17.99 | 339 83% | 10k | $183k (exactly $182,958) | All Parts Connected |
 | Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator | $14.99 | 390 95% | 12k | $175k (exactly $175,383) | BitBros Inc | |
 | Feed the Deep | older | $6.99 | 460 88% | 14k | $96k (exactly $96,462) | Luke Muscat |
 | FREEDIVER: Triton Down | older | $8.99 | 324 83% | 9.7k | $87k (exactly $87,383) | Archiact |
 | Cave Crave VR | $14.99 | 131 83% | 3.9k | $59k (exactly $58,911) | 3R Games S.A. | |
 | Dive The Depths | $9.99 | 87 72% | 2.6k | $26k (exactly $26,074) | Frizuo, Starpixel Studios | |
 | Desktop Fishes | $5.99 | 128 82% | 3.8k | $23k (exactly $23,002) | Daniel Santalla | |
 | What'Sub | · EA | $7.99 | 38 68% | 1.1k | $9.1k (exactly $9,109) | Khaos Games, Nordic Softworks, Future P… (Khaos Games, Nordic Softworks, Future Punch) |
 | tuna hake's underwater | $2.99 | 89 97% | 2.7k | $8.0k (exactly $7,983) | osuika |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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