Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Underwater
Should I ship an Underwater Roguelite?
Roguelite + Underwater
Of 31 developers who shipped an Underwater Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1079 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,317) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $17,072) |
| Top 5% | $677k (exactly $677,323) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 31 |
| Released games | 49 |
| Announced | 39 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelite
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 7,806 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-TimeFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TypingFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DogsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LogicFair
- + DwarvesPoor odds
Comparable games
DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M 
Abyssus 2025 · $3.8M 
We Need To Go Deeper 2019 · $2.2M 
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain 2026 · $677k 
Primordialis 2025 · EA · $584k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DAVE THE DIVER | older | $19.99 | 142,662 96% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $85,554,401) | MINTROCKET |
| | Abyssus | $24.99 | 5,014 84% | 150k | $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) | DoubleMoose Games | |
| | We Need To Go Deeper | older | $15.99 | 4,652 86% | 140k | $2.2M (exactly $2,231,564) | Deli Interactive LLC |
| | DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain | $17.99 | 1,255 91% | 38k | $677k (exactly $677,323) | Drop Rate Studio | |
| | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | Octogeddon | older | $8.88 | 1,298 92% | 39k | $346k (exactly $345,787) | All Yes Good |
 | Sipho | older | $17.99 | 339 83% | 10k | $183k (exactly $182,958) | All Parts Connected |
 | Feed the Deep | older | $6.99 | 460 88% | 14k | $96k (exactly $96,462) | Luke Muscat |
 | Port of Jumanah | $11.99 | 145 100% | 4.4k | $52k (exactly $52,156) | Red Dunes Games, Agate | |
 | Evolve Lab | · EA | $14.99 | 69 94% | 2.1k | $31k (exactly $31,029) | SiRen Games |
 | Deep Blue: Devour and Evolve | $8.99 | 100 83% | 3.0k | $27k (exactly $26,970) | ZHOUZEMING | |
 | Dive The Depths | $9.99 | 87 72% | 2.6k | $26k (exactly $26,074) | Frizuo, Starpixel Studios | |
 | Sea Of Radiation 2 | $5.99 | 95 72% | 2.9k | $17k (exactly $17,072) | NightWalker | |
 | What'Sub | · EA | $7.99 | 38 68% | 1.1k | $9.1k (exactly $9,109) | Khaos Games, Nordic Softworks, Future P… (Khaos Games, Nordic Softworks, Future Punch) |
 | Fishing Mega-Game | $4.99 | 29 89% | 870 | $4.3k (exactly $4,341) | Peep |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.