Games › Open World › Open World + Underwater
Should I ship an Underwater Open World game?
Open World + Underwater
Of 43 developers who shipped an Underwater Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×3.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $47M, ×32020 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 88 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.9k (exactly $5,872) |
| Top 25% | $83k (exactly $83,006) |
| Top 5% | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 43 |
| Released games | 118 |
| Announced | 88 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Co-op
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 68% positive over 362,924 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M 
Raft 2022 · $194M 
Subnautica 2 2026 · EA · $105M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
| | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
 | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
 | Stranded Deep | older | $19.99 | 43,628 74% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $26,163,712) | Beam Team Games |
 | Maneater | older | $39.99 | 21,790 87% | 654k | $26M (exactly $26,141,463) | Tripwire Interactive |
 | Another Crab's Treasure | older | $29.99 | 16,863 93% | 506k | $15M (exactly $15,171,641) | Aggro Crab |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | IfSunSets | · EA | $19.99 | 2,284 74% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) | POLYMORPH |
 | Project Castaway | $19.99 | 1,815 64% | 54k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) | Mardonpol Inc. | |
 | Modern Naval Warfare | · EA | $59.99 | 237 58% | 7.1k | $427k (exactly $426,529) | Wave Ops |
 | Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator | $14.99 | 390 95% | 12k | $175k (exactly $175,383) | BitBros Inc | |
 | Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey | $14.99 | 348 79% | 10k | $156k (exactly $156,496) | World of Poly | |
 | Real VR Fishing | $19.99 | 184 73% | 5.5k | $110k (exactly $110,345) | Devs United Games, Inc |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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