Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Economy game?

Economy + Underwater

Of 27 developers who shipped an Underwater Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1212 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 30 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 30 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $85k → $7.2k → $13k (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,186)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,511)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $760,834)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 36
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Fishing, Management
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 16,616 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Megaquarium older $24.99 3,444 95% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,581,967) Twice Circled
Chillquarium older $5.99 7,780 92% 233k $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) Ben Reber
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Surviving the Abyss $19.99 1,044 64% 31k $626k (exactly $626,087) Rocket Flair Studios
Aquatico older $24.99 786 67% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Digital Reef Games
Scale the Depths $9.99 1,881 88% 56k $564k (exactly $563,736) Glass Gecko Games
Captain Whiskers: Incremental Seas $5.99 886 85% 27k $159k (exactly $159,214) Happy Universe Studios
Joyquarium $5.99 475 90% 14k $85k (exactly $85,358) Easyfun Studio
Idlequarium $5.99 231 75% 6.9k $42k (exactly $41,511) NutsX
Desktop Fishes $5.99 128 82% 3.8k $23k (exactly $23,002) Daniel Santalla
Kraken Cleaning $5.99 92 86% 2.8k $17k (exactly $16,532) Luka Works
Pupple Pop $4.99 110 85% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,467) GrindWill Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.