Do I ship it?

Games › Platformer › Platformer + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Platformer?

Platformer + Underwater

Only 18 developers shipped an Underwater Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Power Sink, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $11k, ×19 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 46 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 46 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $178 → $4.3k → $4.3k → $59 → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 5% $12k (exactly $11,692)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 59
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 233 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FAR: Changing Tides 2022 · $3.0M Tomb Raider: Underworld 2008 · $1.7M Pronty 2021 · $584k Song of the Deep 2016 · $230k Aquaria 2008 · $223k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FAR: Changing Tides older $19.99 5,077 92% 152k $3.0M (exactly $3,044,677) Okomotive
Tomb Raider: Underworld older $8.99 6,173 76% 185k $1.7M (exactly $1,664,858) Crystal Dynamics
Pronty older $17.99 1,082 91% 32k $584k (exactly $583,955) 18Light Game Ltd., FunZone Games
Song of the Deep older $14.99 511 84% 15k $230k (exactly $229,797) Insomniac Games
Aquaria older $9.99 743 90% 22k $223k (exactly $222,677) Bit Blot, LLC
Lumione older $11.99 418 73% 13k $150k (exactly $150,355) Glimmer Studio
Beatbuddy: Tale of the Guardians older $9.99 399 84% 12k $120k (exactly $119,580) Threaks
SAMUDRA older $12.99 73 69% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,448) Khayalan Arts
The Sirena Expedition older $5.99 135 82% 4.1k $24k (exactly $24,260) Giraffe Cat
Below The Ocean older $5.99 129 99% 3.9k $23k (exactly $23,181) Ismael Rodriguez
Power Sink $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Winterwire Games
The Rescue of Mermaids $4.99 71 49% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Erogille
Soul Drifter $14.99 16 93% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) VISIONKEEPER Studio
Cat Clean Ocean $7.99 30 70% 900 $7.2k (exactly $7,191) AGE Zero
Goldfish $14.99 10 80% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Gabry Corti
Upstream $7.99 18 100% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Gllama Games
The Hookmarine $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Elendow
Don't Drown $4.99 23 100% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Snoutical
The Squirrel & Sea $7.99 7 85% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) mite_j
Reefglider $3.99 8 100% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Down Underwater

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.