Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Underwater
Should I ship an Underwater Sandbox?
Sandbox + Underwater
Of 41 developers who shipped an Underwater Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11267 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 70 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $598 (exactly $598) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,307) |
| Top 25% | $41k (exactly $41,017) |
| Top 5% | $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 92 |
| Announced | 70 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Base Building
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 144,504 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Raft 2022 · $194M 
Subnautica 2 2026 · EA · $105M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M 
Stranded Deep 2022 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
| | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Stranded Deep | older | $19.99 | 43,628 74% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $26,163,712) | Beam Team Games |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Sunkenland | · EA older | $19.99 | 20,536 80% | 616k | $12M (exactly $12,315,439) | Vector3 Studio |
 | Feed and Grow: Fish | · EA older | $14.99 | 20,750 78% | 623k | $9.3M (exactly $9,331,275) | Old B1ood |
 | Starsand Island | $39.99 | 5,898 76% | 177k | $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) | Seed Sparkle Lab | |
 | Survival: Fountain of Youth | older | $27.99 | 4,095 85% | 123k | $3.4M (exactly $3,438,572) | Odinsoft Inc. |
 | IfSunSets | · EA | $19.99 | 2,284 74% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) | POLYMORPH |
 | DrainSim | · EA | $14.99 | 2,586 91% | 78k | $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) | CodePeas |
 | Project Castaway | $19.99 | 1,815 64% | 54k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) | Mardonpol Inc. | |
 | Primordialis | · EA | $19.99 | 974 93% | 29k | $584k (exactly $584,108) | Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut |
 | Ecosystem | $19.99 | 601 76% | 18k | $360k (exactly $360,420) | Tom Johnson | |
 | Away From Life | · EA | $12.99 | 213 66% | 6.4k | $83k (exactly $83,006) | Cursor Games |
 | Oceaneers | · EA | $24.99 | 103 86% | 3.1k | $77k (exactly $77,219) | Barrel Smash Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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