Do I ship it?

Games › Naval Combat › Naval Combat + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Underwater

Only 12 developers shipped an Underwater Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $47M, ×76378 the market median. Revenue is up 44265% on the market; 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 44265% on the market, 20 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $1.2k → $296k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Top 5% $48M (exactly $47,965,604)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 35
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 44265% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 28,262 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $290k, 1 in 20 over $47M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M Wolfpack 2019 · EA · $2.0M Silent Hunter® III 2008 · $762k Silent Hunter 5®: Battle of the Atlantic 2010 · $734k IronWolf VR 2022 · $652k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Wolfpack · EA older $34.99 1,862 88% 56k $2.0M (exactly $1,954,541) Usurpator AB
Silent Hunter® III older $9.99 2,544 87% 76k $762k (exactly $762,437) Ubisoft
Silent Hunter 5®: Battle of the Atlantic older $9.99 2,450 44% 74k $734k (exactly $734,265) Ubisoft Romania
IronWolf VR older $19.99 1,087 94% 33k $652k (exactly $651,874) Ionized Studios
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Silent Hunter®: Wolves of the Pacific older $9.99 1,120 69% 34k $336k (exactly $335,664) Ubisoft Romania
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Ace of Seafood older $11.99 526 91% 16k $189k (exactly $189,202) Calappa Games
Dangerous Waters older $14.99 353 79% 11k $159k (exactly $158,744) Sonalysts
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Pirates: Rogue's Fortune · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) NINPO Game Studio
Abyss Crew $9.99 10 30% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) PGM Studio, Deep Slap Studio
Dragons Reef $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Radoslaw Kutowinski
Tigershark $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) N-Space
The Fishercat $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) MACARON STUDIO
Trouble in Pacifica $1.99 4 100% 120 $239 (exactly $239) TwinCats Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.