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Should I ship an Underwater Bullet Hell?
Bullet Hell + Underwater
Of 21 developers who shipped an Underwater Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.
Verdict: long shot, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $22k, ×36 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 16 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $359 (exactly $359) |
| Top 25% | $1.3k (exactly $1,317) |
| Top 5% | $22k (exactly $22,438) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Bullet Hell
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Bullet Hell; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Heaven
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Cartoony
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 284 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SuperheroStrong odds
- + FaithFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + PiratesFair
- + CatsFair
- + HackingFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Card BattlerFair
- + DemonsFair
- + Naval CombatFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | NEO AQUARIUM - The King of Crustaceans - | older | $8.99 | 252 80% | 7.6k | $68k (exactly $67,964) | Calappa Games |
| | Aqua Kitty - Milk Mine Defender | older | $6.99 | 294 86% | 8.8k | $62k (exactly $61,652) | TIKIPOD, Electric Cafe |
| | SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL | $11.99 | 93 89% | 2.8k | $33k (exactly $33,452) | GasGod Games, GLUE MAN | |
| | Operation Octo | $6.99 | 107 98% | 3.2k | $22k (exactly $22,438) | Klub Kofta Studio | |
| | Earth Atlantis | older | $14.99 | 48 58% | 1.4k | $22k (exactly $21,586) | Pixel Perfex |
| | ASTRONAUTILUS | older | $9.99 | 50 94% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $14,985) | neozoid.games |
| | Tragedy of Prince Rupert | older | $3.99 | 59 89% | 1.8k | $7.1k (exactly $7,062) | Spytihněv |
| | Fishing Mega-Game | $4.99 | 29 89% | 870 | $4.3k (exactly $4,341) | Peep | |
| | Super Chaos | $5.99 | 13 92% | 390 | $2.3k (exactly $2,336) | Anodaxia | |
| | The Last Sunshine: Rekindled | older | $4.99 | 13 84% | 390 | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) | Four Eyes Productions |
| | Squidly's Revenge | $4.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) | Howling Wolf Games | |
| | Fish Slayer | $3.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $1.3k (exactly $1,317) | easymemo(悬厘), deathywings | |
| | SeaQuestDungeon | $7.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | AlchemistGame | |
| | Bobble and the Tri-Crystal | $4.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | HenryNova | |
| | Wave 43 | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Alien Game Studio | |
| | Submarine Survivor | $3.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $598 (exactly $598) | The Bat Flight |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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