Do I ship it?

Games › Survival Horror › Survival Horror + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Underwater

Of 21 developers who shipped an Underwater Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2181 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 50 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1M → $179 → $9.6k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $95,161)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 49
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 126,019 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $95k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Subnautica 2018 · $307M Subnautica 2 2026 · EA · $105M Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M Barotrauma 2023 · $65M SOMA 2015 · $42M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
Depth older $19.99 23,590 89% 708k $14M (exactly $14,146,923) Ammobox Studios
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Murky Divers $8.99 3,981 87% 119k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) Embers
Death in the Water 2 older $14.99 1,734 83% 52k $780k (exactly $779,780) Lighthouse Games Studio
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Subterror $7.99 397 90% 12k $95k (exactly $95,161) Team Monumental
OYASUMII $6.99 98 83% 2.9k $21k (exactly $20,551) NEO PROJECT Studios
TARO IS BACK $15.00 44 84% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,800) BeforeHomeWorks
The Oily Depths $2.99 107 84% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Ryan R. Burns
Scary Cave Diving $4.99 12 50% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Ekblad

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.