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Should I ship an Underwater Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Underwater
Of 20 developers who shipped an Underwater Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×997 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $600 (exactly $600) |
| Top 25% | $4.0k (exactly $4,047) |
| Top 5% | $626k (exactly $626,087) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 46 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Strategy, Base Building
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 2,066 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Surviving the Abyss 2024 · $626k 
Static Dread: The Submarine 2026 · $110k 
Verne: The Shape of Fantasy 2023 · $99k 
Biotope 2019 · EA · $82k 
Islands of the Caliph 2023 · $82k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
| | Static Dread: The Submarine | $11.99 | 307 81% | 9.2k | $110k (exactly $110,428) | solarsuit.games | |
| | Verne: The Shape of Fantasy | older | $14.99 | 221 82% | 6.6k | $99k (exactly $99,384) | Gametopia |
| | Biotope | · EA older | $14.99 | 183 42% | 5.5k | $82k (exactly $82,295) | MBL Development |
| | Islands of the Caliph | older | $9.99 | 272 88% | 8.2k | $82k (exactly $81,518) | Schmidt Workshops |
 | Loan Shark | $3.99 | 635 84% | 19k | $76k (exactly $76,010) | Studio Ortica | |
 | Mythic Ocean | older | $14.99 | 110 97% | 3.3k | $49k (exactly $49,467) | Paralune LLC |
 | Debris | older | $9.99 | 97 60% | 2.9k | $29k (exactly $29,071) | Moonray Studios |
 | DragonRideVR | older | $14.99 | 47 93% | 1.4k | $21k (exactly $21,136) | TypeEh Studios |
 | The people of Sea, Sun & Salt | $9.99 | 44 100% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $13,187) | Emerick Gibson | |
 | Deepest Trench | $14.99 | 9 66% | 270 | $4.0k (exactly $4,047) | Favor Games | |
 | SALTWATER | $3.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) | Lean Hog, shinyvictorcarp | |
 | Spearfishing Simulator | $7.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $959 (exactly $959) | Riv3r | |
 | Troubled Waters | $5.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $898 (exactly $898) | BaleYc Studios | |
 | Venus in Transit | $6.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $629 (exactly $629) | Gear Flower Games | |
 | Marimo-VS-IAS: Our Friends | $19.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | JoyPlot |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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