Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Underwater

Only 13 developers shipped an Underwater Farming Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starsand Island, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11267 the market median. Revenue is up 540% on the market; 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 540% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $85k → $23k
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $891 (exactly $891)
Median $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $85,358)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 27
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 540% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Farming Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 10,607 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.4k, 1 in 4 over $85k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Critter Cove · EA older $24.99 1,735 94% 52k $1.3M (exactly $1,300,730) Gentleman Rat Studios
The Fisherman - Fishing Planet older $29.99 975 62% 29k $877k (exactly $877,208) Fishing Planet LLC
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Aquarist older $15.99 950 81% 29k $456k (exactly $455,715) FreeMind S.A.
Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator $14.99 390 95% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) BitBros Inc
Creatura older $14.99 214 67% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Koksny.com
Joyquarium $5.99 475 90% 14k $85k (exactly $85,358) Easyfun Studio
Idlequarium $5.99 231 75% 6.9k $42k (exactly $41,511) NutsX
Desktop Fishes $5.99 128 82% 3.8k $23k (exactly $23,002) Daniel Santalla
Milo's Tiny Fish Pond $4.99 43 86% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) MMUnit
Aquaville $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Team Machiavelli
ARC Aquarium $4.99 13 92% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ACA Games
CHILL FISHING $0.99 30 90% 900 $891 (exactly $891) Sleepy Giant Creations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.