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Should I ship an Underwater Multiple Endings game?
Multiple Endings + Underwater
Only 16 developers shipped an Underwater Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, OYASUMII, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $20k, ×33 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 34 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $958 (exactly $958) |
| Top 25% | $4.0k (exactly $4,047) |
| Top 5% | $21k (exactly $20,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 41 |
| Announced | 34 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 248 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WuxiaFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + GamblingFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
Comparable games
The Shore 2021 · $634k 
Pronty 2021 · $584k 
Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade 2021 · $204k 
G-Darius HD 2022 · $142k 
Debris 2017 · $29k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Shore | older | $11.99 | 1,763 70% | 53k | $634k (exactly $634,151) | Ares Dragonis |
| | Pronty | older | $17.99 | 1,082 91% | 32k | $584k (exactly $583,955) | 18Light Game Ltd., FunZone Games |
| | Darius Cozmic Collection Arcade | older | $44.99 | 151 94% | 4.5k | $204k (exactly $203,805) | TAITO CORP., M2 Co.,LTD |
| | G-Darius HD | older | $29.99 | 158 94% | 4.7k | $142k (exactly $142,153) | TAITO CORP., M2 Co., Ltd. |
| | Debris | older | $9.99 | 97 60% | 2.9k | $29k (exactly $29,071) | Moonray Studios |
 | The Sirena Expedition | older | $5.99 | 135 82% | 4.1k | $24k (exactly $24,260) | Giraffe Cat |
 | DAISY THE SWIMMER | older | $5.99 | 121 63% | 3.6k | $22k (exactly $21,744) | nStarcube |
 | OYASUMII | $6.99 | 98 83% | 2.9k | $21k (exactly $20,551) | NEO PROJECT Studios | |
 | These Darker Tides | $7.99 | 76 90% | 2.3k | $18k (exactly $18,217) | Pixel Drip Games | |
 | Aquadine | older | $19.99 | 29 93% | 870 | $17k (exactly $17,391) | SoftColors |
 | Wavekin | $9.99 | 28 100% | 840 | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) | La Folie Studio | |
 | Deepest Trench | $14.99 | 9 66% | 270 | $4.0k (exactly $4,047) | Favor Games | |
 | Scary Cave Diving | $4.99 | 12 50% | 360 | $1.8k (exactly $1,796) | Ekblad | |
 | Diving into abyss | $4.99 | 9 33% | 270 | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) | Springbok | |
 | Reef Defense | $9.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Swift Creek Games | |
 | Scrap Diver | $3.99 | 8 87% | 240 | $958 (exactly $958) | BricchiLab | |
 | Venus in Transit | $6.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $629 (exactly $629) | Gear Flower Games | |
 | Marimo-VS-IAS: Our Friends | $19.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | JoyPlot |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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