Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Life Sim?

Life Sim + Underwater

Of 36 developers who shipped an Underwater Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×612 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 43 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $6.1k → $360k → $3.2k → $45k → $599 (still earning) → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,232)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $45,854)
Top 5% $385k (exactly $384,596)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 64
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 9,316 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Critter Cove · EA older $24.99 1,735 94% 52k $1.3M (exactly $1,300,730) Gentleman Rat Studios
Aquarist older $15.99 950 81% 29k $456k (exactly $455,715) FreeMind S.A.
Fish Game older $24.99 589 93% 18k $442k (exactly $441,573) A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink… (A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink Games)
Subside $24.99 513 96% 15k $385k (exactly $384,596) A2D Software
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Aquarium Designer older $9.99 1,086 84% 33k $325k (exactly $325,474) Sigur Studio
FISHERY · EA older $19.99 375 83% 11k $225k (exactly $224,887) Lilou Studio
Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator $14.99 390 95% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) BitBros Inc
Fantasy Aquarium $6.99 833 79% 25k $175k (exactly $174,680) MOON SCAPE
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Deep Blue Sushi · EA $14.99 212 75% 6.4k $95k (exactly $95,336) PaperPixel Games
Help! I'm Turning Into A Mermaid! $29.99 66 95% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) Lached Up Games
With Me: Aquatic Time · EA $9.99 153 88% 4.6k $46k (exactly $45,854) Sensory Patch Games
Zen Aquarium $4.99 302 93% 9.1k $45k (exactly $45,209) Astro Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.