Do I ship it?

Games › Sailing › Sailing + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Sailing game?

Sailing + Underwater

Of 24 developers who shipped an Underwater Sailing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Revenue is up 1480% on the market; 30 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1480% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.2k → $69k → $3.9k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sailing + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,279)
Top 5% $14M (exactly $13,832,947)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 54
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1480% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 42,524 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  2. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  6. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced
  7. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  9. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  10. + Resource ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $8.5k · 55 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $6.6k · 42 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M The Last Caretaker 2025 · EA · $14M Cat Goes Fishing 2015 · $3.2M Voyagers of Nera 2025 · EA · $1.8M Critter Cove 2024 · EA · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
Critter Cove · EA older $24.99 1,735 94% 52k $1.3M (exactly $1,300,730) Gentleman Rat Studios
Dangerous Waters older $14.99 353 79% 11k $159k (exactly $158,744) Sonalysts
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Islands of the Caliph older $9.99 272 88% 8.2k $82k (exactly $81,518) Schmidt Workshops
Following Seas · EA $14.99 153 76% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Whipstaff Games
Kingdom of Wreck Business older $9.99 127 31% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,062) WarZoneLab
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
JAWS: Retro Edition $14.99 38 97% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Limited Run Games
Tidewrack $9.99 22 68% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) OverLKD Studio
Fisherman Simulator $6.99 28 78% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) RFT
LOGBOOK: Beneath the Storm $13.99 13 38% 390 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Pink Iceberg Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.