Games › Exploration › Exploration + Underwater
Should I ship an Underwater Exploration game?
Exploration + Underwater
Of 129 developers who shipped an Underwater Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 256 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1733 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 256 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,307) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $23,640) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 129 |
| Released games | 318 |
| Announced | 256 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Underwater
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Exploration; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 175,816 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 256 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Subnautica 2 2026 · EA · $105M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M 
DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M 
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 116,852 91% | 3.5M | $105M (exactly $105,131,744) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | DAVE THE DIVER | older | $19.99 | 142,662 96% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $85,554,401) | MINTROCKET |
| | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
 | SOMA | older | $29.99 | 46,772 95% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,080,768) | Frictional Games |
 | Stranded Deep | older | $19.99 | 43,628 74% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $26,163,712) | Beam Team Games |
 | Maneater | older | $39.99 | 21,790 87% | 654k | $26M (exactly $26,141,463) | Tripwire Interactive |
 | Depth | older | $19.99 | 23,590 89% | 708k | $14M (exactly $14,146,923) | Ammobox Studios |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Starsand Island | $39.99 | 5,898 76% | 177k | $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) | Seed Sparkle Lab | |
 | Voyagers of Nera | · EA | $29.99 | 2,022 83% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) | Treehouse Games |
 | IfSunSets | · EA | $19.99 | 2,284 74% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) | POLYMORPH |
 | Project Castaway | $19.99 | 1,815 64% | 54k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) | Mardonpol Inc. | |
 | Murky Divers | $8.99 | 3,981 87% | 119k | $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) | Embers | |
 | Dreamcore | $17.99 | 1,879 89% | 56k | $1.0M (exactly $1,014,096) | Montraluz | |
 | DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain | $17.99 | 1,255 91% | 38k | $677k (exactly $677,323) | Drop Rate Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.