Do I ship it?

Games › Walking Simulator › Walking Simulator + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Walking Simulator?

Walking Simulator + Underwater

Of 29 developers who shipped an Underwater Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1615 the market median. Revenue is up 495% on the market; 46 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 495% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Walking Simulator + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $17k → $3.7k → $1.3k → $7.6k → $3.6k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Walking Simulator + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,640)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,014,096)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 72
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 495% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Walking Simulator; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 7,304 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds13 devs · median $5.8k · 9 announced
  2. + WarFair10 devs · median $5.1k · 12 announced
  3. + RomanceFair36 devs · median $3.5k · 38 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair38 devs · median $2.7k · 25 announced
  5. + ThrillerFair449 devs · median $2.7k · 499 announced
  6. + MusicFair16 devs · median $2.1k · 20 announced
  7. + SupernaturalFair297 devs · median $1.8k · 354 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair1,043 devs · median $1.7k · 1,251 announced
  9. + PsychologicalFair442 devs · median $1.7k · 552 announced
  10. + IdlerFair38 devs · median $1.7k · 41 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  12. + NoirFair44 devs · median $1.5k · 52 announced

All 145 pairs on the Walking Simulator page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SOMA 2015 · $42M ABZU 2016 · $13M Still Wakes the Deep 2024 · $12M Iron Lung 2022 · $2.4M POOLS 2024 · $1.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
ABZU older $19.99 21,997 93% 660k $13M (exactly $13,191,601) Giant Squid
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
Iron Lung older $7.99 10,168 92% 305k $2.4M (exactly $2,437,270) David Szymanski
POOLS older $9.79 6,460 95% 194k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,302) Tensori
Under The Waves older $29.99 1,683 77% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,195) Parallel Studio
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
Dreamcore $17.99 1,879 89% 56k $1.0M (exactly $1,014,096) Montraluz
Beyond Blue older $19.99 1,055 88% 32k $633k (exactly $632,684) E-Line Media
Narcosis older $14.99 1,205 75% 36k $542k (exactly $541,888) Honor Code, Inc.
Liminalcore $7.99 723 83% 22k $173k (exactly $173,303) Shadow Owl Studios, Ashen Studios
PROXIMATE $5.99 953 93% 29k $171k (exactly $171,254) Cain Maddox
Loan Shark $3.99 635 84% 19k $76k (exactly $76,010) Studio Ortica
Dreamcore: Rabbit Hole $5.99 396 72% 12k $71k (exactly $71,161) Ankoku
Cave Crave VR $14.99 131 83% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) 3R Games S.A.
There's Nothing Down There $2.00 394 84% 12k $24k (exactly $23,640) Tim Trankle
The Liminal Dimension $3.99 88 79% 2.6k $11k (exactly $10,534) Airem
Wavekin $9.99 28 100% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) La Folie Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.