Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Crafting game?

Crafting + Underwater

Of 21 developers who shipped an Underwater Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×33 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11267 the market median. Revenue is up 8180% on the market; 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 32.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 8180% on the market, 50 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3M → $1.9k → $7.2k → $5.3k → $83k (still earning) → $677k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 25% $156k (exactly $156,496)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 48
Announced 50
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8180% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Building, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 25,069 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Subnautica 2018 · $307M Raft 2022 · $194M Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M Stranded Deep 2022 · $26M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Stranded Deep older $19.99 43,628 74% 1.3M $26M (exactly $26,163,712) Beam Team Games
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Survival: Fountain of Youth older $27.99 4,095 85% 123k $3.4M (exactly $3,438,572) Odinsoft Inc.
Loddlenaut older $19.99 3,832 98% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,298,050) Moon Lagoon
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
Project Castaway $19.99 1,815 64% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) Mardonpol Inc.
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Life Below $29.99 150 80% 4.5k $135k (exactly $134,955) Megapop
Away From Life · EA $12.99 213 66% 6.4k $83k (exactly $83,006) Cursor Games
Oceaneers · EA $24.99 103 86% 3.1k $77k (exactly $77,219) Barrel Smash Studios
Dive The Depths $9.99 87 72% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) Frizuo, Starpixel Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.