Do I ship it?

Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Underwater

Of 38 developers who shipped an Underwater Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $41k, ×65 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 81 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 81 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $7.6k → $17k → $809 → $4.3k → $1.8k → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Top 5% $41k (exactly $41,131)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 134
Announced 81
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, 3D Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,198 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SOMA 2015 · $42M Survival: Fountain of Youth 2024 · $3.4M Cat Goes Fishing 2015 · $3.2M FAR: Changing Tides 2022 · $3.0M Tomb Raider: Underworld 2008 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
Survival: Fountain of Youth older $27.99 4,095 85% 123k $3.4M (exactly $3,438,572) Odinsoft Inc.
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
FAR: Changing Tides older $19.99 5,077 92% 152k $3.0M (exactly $3,044,677) Okomotive
Tomb Raider: Underworld older $8.99 6,173 76% 185k $1.7M (exactly $1,664,858) Crystal Dynamics
DrainSim · EA $14.99 2,586 91% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) CodePeas
In Other Waters older $14.99 2,093 88% 63k $941k (exactly $941,222) Jump Over The Age
The Shore older $11.99 1,763 70% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) Ares Dragonis
Aquarist older $15.99 950 81% 29k $456k (exactly $455,715) FreeMind S.A.
Abyss: The Wraiths of Eden older $14.99 826 89% 25k $371k (exactly $371,452) Artifex Mundi
Panthalassa $13.99 98 97% 2.9k $41k (exactly $41,131) Meia Calça
Bahamut and the Waqwaq Tree $14.99 81 95% 2.4k $36k (exactly $36,426) Starvania Studio
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
OYASUMII $6.99 98 83% 2.9k $21k (exactly $20,551) NEO PROJECT Studios
CRUSH DEPTH $7.99 49 97% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Earth Giant
Power Sink $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) Winterwire Games
Bottle Can Float $3.99 91 89% 2.7k $11k (exactly $10,893) Kayla.Z
The Rescue of Mermaids $4.99 71 49% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Erogille
Wavekin $9.99 28 100% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) La Folie Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.