Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Underwater

Of 25 developers who shipped an Underwater Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×930 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $96k → $2.7k → $7.2k → $9.1k (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,279)
Top 5% $584k (exactly $584,108)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 57
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Resource Management, Sandbox
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 7,193 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Murky Divers 2024 · $1.1M Primordialis 2025 · EA · $584k Ecosystem 2024 · $360k Darkwater 2026 · $296k Feed the Deep 2024 · $96k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Murky Divers $8.99 3,981 87% 119k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) Embers
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Feed the Deep older $6.99 460 88% 14k $96k (exactly $96,462) Luke Muscat
Creatura older $14.99 214 67% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Koksny.com
My Koi older $4.99 623 94% 19k $93k (exactly $93,263) Sakana Studios
Oceaneers · EA $24.99 103 86% 3.1k $77k (exactly $77,219) Barrel Smash Studios
Gaia older $19.99 79 56% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) Eternal Stardust Studios
Zen Aquarium $4.99 302 93% 9.1k $45k (exactly $45,209) Astro Cat
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
Dive The Depths $9.99 87 72% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) Frizuo, Starpixel Studios
What'Sub · EA $7.99 38 68% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Khaos Games, Nordic Softworks, Future P… (Khaos Games, Nordic Softworks, Future Punch)
Moose Diver $4.99 48 83% 1.4k $7.2k (exactly $7,186) Lingon Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.