Do I ship it?

Games › Building › Building + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Building game?

Building + Underwater

Of 28 developers who shipped an Underwater Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×21 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2897 the market median. Revenue is up 630% on the market; 42 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 630% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60k → $30k → $456k → $104k → $3.2k → $3.6k → $77k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Median $13k (exactly $13,187)
Top 25% $175k (exactly $175,383)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 66
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 630% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Crafting, Simulation
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 13,864 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Raft 2022 · $194M Stranded Deep 2022 · $26M Starsand Island 2026 · $7.1M Survival: Fountain of Youth 2024 · $3.4M Megaquarium 2018 · $2.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Stranded Deep older $19.99 43,628 74% 1.3M $26M (exactly $26,163,712) Beam Team Games
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Survival: Fountain of Youth older $27.99 4,095 85% 123k $3.4M (exactly $3,438,572) Odinsoft Inc.
Megaquarium older $24.99 3,444 95% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,581,967) Twice Circled
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
Project Castaway $19.99 1,815 64% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) Mardonpol Inc.
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Surviving the Abyss $19.99 1,044 64% 31k $626k (exactly $626,087) Rocket Flair Studios
Aquatico older $24.99 786 67% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Digital Reef Games
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator $14.99 390 95% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) BitBros Inc
Life Below $29.99 150 80% 4.5k $135k (exactly $134,955) Megapop
Away From Life · EA $12.99 213 66% 6.4k $83k (exactly $83,006) Cursor Games
Oceaneers · EA $24.99 103 86% 3.1k $77k (exactly $77,219) Barrel Smash Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.