Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Underwater

Of 26 developers who shipped an Underwater Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×930 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 34 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $1.5k → $3.9k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 5% $584k (exactly $584,108)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 39
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 6,307 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Abyssus $24.99 5,014 84% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) DoubleMoose Games
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
Octogeddon older $8.88 1,298 92% 39k $346k (exactly $345,787) All Yes Good
Sipho older $17.99 339 83% 10k $183k (exactly $182,958) All Parts Connected
Port of Jumanah $11.99 145 100% 4.4k $52k (exactly $52,156) Red Dunes Games, Agate
Dive The Depths $9.99 87 72% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) Frizuo, Starpixel Studios
Swirl W@tch older $14.99 54 98% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Sleeper Games
ASTRONAUTILUS older $9.99 50 94% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) neozoid.games
Fishing Mega-Game $4.99 29 89% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Peep
Pirates: Rogue's Fortune · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) NINPO Game Studio
Super Chaos $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Anodaxia
SALTWATER $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Lean Hog, shinyvictorcarp
Squidly's Revenge $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Howling Wolf Games
Fish Slayer $3.99 11 100% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) easymemo(悬厘), deathywings

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.