Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Co-op game?

Co-op + Underwater

Of 32 developers who shipped an Underwater Co-op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.1k, ×6.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $100M, ×70181 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 34 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $4.0k → $3.0k → $1.8M → $4.3k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 25% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Top 5% $105M (exactly $105,131,744)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 66
Announced 34
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 332,433 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $9.1k, 1 in 4 over $290k, 1 in 20 over $100M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Barotrauma older $34.99 61,905 94% 1.9M $65M (exactly $64,981,678) FakeFish, Undertow Games
Stranded Deep older $19.99 43,628 74% 1.3M $26M (exactly $26,163,712) Beam Team Games
Depth older $19.99 23,590 89% 708k $14M (exactly $14,146,923) Ammobox Studios
SpongeBob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom - Rehydrated older $29.99 14,439 94% 433k $13M (exactly $12,990,768) Purple Lamp
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Feed and Grow: Fish · EA older $14.99 20,750 78% 623k $9.3M (exactly $9,331,275) Old B1ood
Abyssus $24.99 5,014 84% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) DoubleMoose Games
Voyagers of Nera · EA $29.99 2,022 83% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,819,193) Treehouse Games
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
Project Castaway $19.99 1,815 64% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456) Mardonpol Inc.
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Real VR Fishing $19.99 184 73% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Devs United Games, Inc
Deep Blue Sushi · EA $14.99 212 75% 6.4k $95k (exactly $95,336) PaperPixel Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.