Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation

Of 2,188 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,211 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×1045 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 4,211 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,188
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $2.8k → $2.9k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,188
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 5% $497k (exactly $496,552)
Developers, 2 yr 2,188
Released games 5,855
Announced 4,211
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 974,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 992 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Procedural Generation

61 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Procedural Generation + Snow Fair $3.0k 11 devs
  2. Procedural Generation + Detective Fair $1.5k 29 devs
  3. Procedural Generation + Trains Poor odds $30k 22 devs
  4. Procedural Generation + Western Poor odds $24k 16 devs
  5. Procedural Generation + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $18k 12 devs
  6. Procedural Generation + Pirates Poor odds $15k 17 devs
  7. Procedural Generation + Naval Poor odds $15k 10 devs
  8. Procedural Generation + Lovecraftian Poor odds $12k 34 devs
  9. Procedural Generation + Dwarves Poor odds $9.6k 11 devs
  10. Procedural Generation + Historical Poor odds $9.4k 39 devs
  11. Procedural Generation + Romance Poor odds $6.3k 11 devs
  12. Procedural Generation + Spaceships Poor odds $6.3k 16 devs
  13. Procedural Generation + Science Poor odds $5.8k 37 devs
  14. Procedural Generation + Capitalism Poor odds $5.0k 52 devs
  15. Procedural Generation + Martial Arts Poor odds $4.2k 13 devs
  16. Procedural Generation + Medieval Poor odds $4.1k 172 devs
  17. Procedural Generation + Underwater Poor odds $3.9k 25 devs
  18. Procedural Generation + Heist Poor odds $3.4k 14 devs
  19. Procedural Generation + War Poor odds $3.3k 63 devs
  20. Procedural Generation + Crime Poor odds $2.9k 16 devs
  21. Procedural Generation + Alternate History Poor odds $2.7k 20 devs
  22. Procedural Generation + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $2.5k 56 devs
  23. Procedural Generation + Mythology Poor odds $2.3k 40 devs
  24. Procedural Generation + Fantasy Poor odds $2.2k 493 devs
  25. Procedural Generation + Noir Poor odds $2.2k 22 devs
  26. Procedural Generation + Magic Poor odds $2.1k 180 devs
  27. Procedural Generation + Cats Poor odds $2.1k 36 devs
  28. Procedural Generation + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $2.1k 112 devs
  29. Procedural Generation + Female Protagonist Poor odds $2.0k 84 devs
  30. Procedural Generation + Horror Poor odds $1.9k 255 devs
  31. Procedural Generation + Dragons Poor odds $1.9k 17 devs
  32. Procedural Generation + Hacking Poor odds $1.8k 15 devs
  33. Procedural Generation + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.8k 136 devs
  34. Procedural Generation + Nature Poor odds $1.8k 120 devs
  35. Procedural Generation + Underground Poor odds $1.8k 66 devs
  36. Procedural Generation + Robots Poor odds $1.7k 64 devs
  37. Procedural Generation + Mechs Poor odds $1.7k 17 devs
  38. Procedural Generation + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $1.6k 205 devs
  39. Procedural Generation + Dystopian Poor odds $1.5k 52 devs
  40. Procedural Generation + Military Poor odds $1.4k 44 devs
  41. Procedural Generation + Gothic Poor odds $1.4k 21 devs
  42. Procedural Generation + Zombies Poor odds $1.3k 53 devs
  43. Procedural Generation + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 66 devs
  44. Procedural Generation + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.2k 84 devs
  45. Procedural Generation + Vampires Poor odds $1.1k 13 devs
  46. Procedural Generation + Space Poor odds $1.0k 251 devs
  47. Procedural Generation + Sci-fi Poor odds $987 410 devs
  48. Procedural Generation + Mystery Poor odds $960 105 devs
  49. Procedural Generation + Dogs Poor odds $959 18 devs
  50. Procedural Generation + Thriller Poor odds $839 31 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M RimWorld 2018 · $219M Stellaris 2016 · $210M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.