Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Science

Of 37 developers who shipped a Science Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1837 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 67 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 67 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.7k → $16k → $10k → $65k → $5.8k → $5.3k (still earning) → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,755)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $67,572)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 121
Announced 67
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 9,597 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Stardeus · EA older $29.99 1,430 87% 43k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,571) Kodo Linija
Flyout · EA older $19.99 2,137 83% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,281,559) Stonext Games
Slipways older $16.99 2,233 93% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) Beetlewing
The Sapling · EA older $17.99 1,922 89% 58k $1.0M (exactly $1,037,303) Wessel Stoop
Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition older $19.99 1,566 73% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Radiation Blue
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox
Atomcraft $14.99 407 94% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) Triplejump
Primitier $19.99 305 94% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ota Mato
Learning Factory $14.99 390 84% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) Luden.io
Nature & Life - Drunk On Nectar $14.99 263 87% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) Venugopalan Sreedharan
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
ANLIFE: Motion-Learning Life Evolution $13.99 161 83% 4.8k $68k (exactly $67,572) Attructure Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.