Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Capitalism

Of 52 developers who shipped a Capitalist Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 89 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $850; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×1271 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 89 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 89 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $8.8k → $2.4k → $18k → $10k → $2.4k → $2.5k (still earning) → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $848 (exactly $848)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,166)
Top 5% $604k (exactly $603,947)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 112
Announced 89
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 10,002 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $850, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $850. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 89 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Luck be a Landlord older $9.99 10,213 93% 306k $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) TrampolineTales
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Dealer's Life 2 older $14.99 3,994 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,796,102) Abyte Entertainment
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers older $14.99 2,988 81% 90k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,704) Purple Moss Collectors
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
City Game Studio: Your Game Dev Adventure Begins older $19.99 1,779 91% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,866) Binogure Studio 🐺
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
IRMÃO Grande & Brasileiro 2 older $19.99 1,392 97% 42k $835k (exactly $834,782) Virgula Leal
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Insider Trading $12.89 600 79% 18k $232k (exactly $232,020) Naiive
Agrivore: Incremental Farming $6.99 494 70% 15k $104k (exactly $103,592) verty
Another Farm Roguelike: Rebirth $6.99 433 69% 13k $91k (exactly $90,800) Zabbo Games
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Summer Islands $14.99 190 81% 5.7k $85k (exactly $85,443) Marttalin Games
Forest Hustle $4.99 570 90% 17k $85k (exactly $85,329) Mike Forest
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.