Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Horror

Of 255 developers who shipped a Horror Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 500 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2260 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 500 games are announced against 160 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 500 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 255
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $2.2k → $11k → $3.5k → $6.0k → $2.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 255
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,760)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676)
Developers, 2 yr 255
Released games 547
Announced 500
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 734,729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 107 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 500 games are announced against 160 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
We Happy Few older $59.99 11,204 76% 336k $20M (exactly $20,163,839) Compulsion Games
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Nightingale · EA older $29.99 15,338 66% 460k $14M (exactly $13,799,599) Inflexion Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.