Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Naval

Only 10 developers shipped a Naval Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Salt 2: Shores of Gold, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $700; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 29 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $15k → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $700 (exactly $700)
Median $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 25% $296k (exactly $296,403)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 26
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Procedural Generation
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 81% positive over 4,379 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $700, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $290k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $700. 29 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M Pixel Piracy 2014 · $2.6M Salt 2: Shores of Gold 2025 · $1.3M Salt 2018 · $881k Abandon Ship 2019 · $863k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
Reclaim The Sea $11.99 41 75% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) 1LastGame
Kamikaze Survivors $9.99 9 77% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) DaboSoft
Pirate Twist · EA $4.67 5 100% 150 $700 (exactly $700) BTG Labs
Wake Explorer $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Ocelli
Sink And Score $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Fart Games
NavalStrike $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Tencubed Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.