Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation

Of 2,188 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,211 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×1045 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 4,211 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,188
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $2.8k → $2.9k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,188
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,994)
Top 5% $497k (exactly $496,552)
Developers, 2 yr 2,188
Released games 5,855
Announced 4,211
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 974,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 992 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,211 games are announced against 1,331 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Procedural Generation

162 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Procedural Generation + Traditional Roguelike Fair $2.0k 71 devs
  2. Procedural Generation + Word Game Fair $1.3k 22 devs
  3. Procedural Generation + Typing Fair $1.1k 26 devs
  4. Procedural Generation + Idler Fair $807 98 devs
  5. Procedural Generation + Logic Fair $478 137 devs
  6. Procedural Generation + Walking Simulator Fair $449 57 devs
  7. Procedural Generation + Precision Platformer Fair $449 49 devs
  8. Procedural Generation + Hidden Object Fair $418 58 devs
  9. Open World Survival Craft + Procedural Generation Poor odds $77k 31 devs
  10. Sailing + Procedural Generation Poor odds $27k 10 devs
  11. Diplomacy + Procedural Generation Poor odds $22k 6 devs
  12. Procedural Generation + Gambling Poor odds $20k 28 devs
  13. Colony Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $15k 82 devs
  14. Real-Time with Pause + Procedural Generation Poor odds $15k 13 devs
  15. Party-Based RPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $13k 50 devs
  16. Turn-Based + Procedural Generation Poor odds $12k 107 devs
  17. Action RTS + Procedural Generation Poor odds $11k 22 devs
  18. Procedural Generation + Roguelike Deckbuilder Poor odds $10k 154 devs
  19. Trading Card Game + Procedural Generation Poor odds $10k 10 devs
  20. Base Building + Procedural Generation Poor odds $9.6k 215 devs
  21. Transportation + Procedural Generation Poor odds $9.6k 19 devs
  22. City Builder + Procedural Generation Poor odds $9.4k 115 devs
  23. Political Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $9.4k 18 devs
  24. Building + Procedural Generation Poor odds $9.4k 233 devs
  25. Procedural Generation + Auto Battler Poor odds $8.2k 82 devs
  26. Farming Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $7.8k 34 devs
  27. Tactical RPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $6.2k 62 devs
  28. Metroidvania + Procedural Generation Poor odds $6.2k 16 devs
  29. Grand Strategy + Procedural Generation Poor odds $6.1k 25 devs
  30. Sandbox + Procedural Generation Poor odds $6.0k 275 devs
  31. Strategy RPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $5.4k 88 devs
  32. JRPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $5.4k 25 devs
  33. Action RPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $5.4k 148 devs
  34. Management + Procedural Generation Poor odds $5.3k 242 devs
  35. Online Co-Op + Procedural Generation Poor odds $5.3k 220 devs
  36. Automation + Procedural Generation Poor odds $5.3k 101 devs
  37. Procedural Generation + Programming Poor odds $5.3k 21 devs
  38. Procedural Generation + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $5.0k 252 devs
  39. God Game + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.7k 40 devs
  40. Crafting + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.5k 209 devs
  41. Open World + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.4k 209 devs
  42. RTS + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.4k 92 devs
  43. Boomer Shooter + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.4k 22 devs
  44. Co-op + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.3k 232 devs
  45. RPG + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.3k 474 devs
  46. Procedural Generation + Card Battler Poor odds $4.3k 164 devs
  47. Agriculture + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.2k 13 devs
  48. Level Editor + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.0k 44 devs
  49. Automobile Sim + Procedural Generation Poor odds $4.0k 15 devs
  50. Procedural Generation + Deckbuilding Poor odds $4.0k 256 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M RimWorld 2018 · $219M Stellaris 2016 · $210M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.