Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Dragons

Only 17 developers shipped a Dragon Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mind Over Magic, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5150 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $8.4k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 53
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,631 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Slice & Dice older $8.99 2,484 96% 75k $670k (exactly $669,935) Tann
FlowScape older $14.99 1,230 84% 37k $553k (exactly $553,131) Pixel Forest Games
Pathfinder: Gallowspire Survivors older $6.99 559 59% 17k $117k (exactly $117,222) BKOM Studios
The Dragoness: Command of the Flame older $19.99 134 67% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Crazy Goat Games
Rogue older $2.99 498 94% 15k $45k (exactly $44,671) Epyx, Inc.
Choice Chamber older $9.99 123 89% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Studio Bean
Dragon Extinction · EA older $14.99 80 77% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) Xefier Games Inc.
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
Demiurges $14.99 36 88% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Berih
Rustic Defense $9.99 28 96% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Lasot Interactive
Wilderless: Meadowfell $7.99 25 84% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Protopop
Pawful Dice $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Anomalie Studio
Boundless AI Fantasy $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) João Vitor Andrioli de Souza
Dragonwake $7.99 8 62% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Mr Crops
Dungeon World $6.99 6 83% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) FBRZD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.