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Should I ship a Pirate Procedural Generation game?
Procedural Generation + Pirates
Only 17 developers shipped a Pirate Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Salt 2: Shores of Gold, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
|---|---|
| Median | $15k (exactly $15,350) |
| Top 25% | $74k (exactly $74,200) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 49 |
| Announced | 51 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Procedural Generation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Pirates
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Comedy
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,372 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SnowFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + DetectiveFair
- + Word GameFair
- + TypingFair
- + IdlerFair
- + LogicFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
| | Space Pirates And Zombies 2 | older | $19.99 | 2,734 78% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,639,580) | MinMax Games Ltd. |
| | Salt 2: Shores of Gold | $19.99 | 2,182 85% | 65k | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) | Lavaboots Studios | |
| | Salt | older | $14.99 | 1,959 75% | 59k | $881k (exactly $880,962) | Lavaboots Studios |
| | Abandon Ship | older | $24.99 | 1,151 71% | 35k | $863k (exactly $862,905) | Fireblade Software |
| | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
| | Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles | older | $19.99 | 1,381 85% | 41k | $828k (exactly $828,186) | Tomas Sala |
| | Windward | older | $9.99 | 2,668 79% | 80k | $800k (exactly $799,600) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. |
| | Space Pirates and Zombies | older | $9.99 | 2,231 91% | 67k | $669k (exactly $668,631) | MinMax Games Ltd. |
| | King of Seas | older | $24.99 | 603 57% | 18k | $452k (exactly $452,069) | 3DClouds |
| | Last Pirates: Die Together | · EA | $7.99 | 325 76% | 9.8k | $78k (exactly $77,902) | RetroStyle Games |
| | Dig, Dig, Die | $7.99 | 321 64% | 9.6k | $77k (exactly $76,944) | Alice Games | |
| | High Seas, High Profits! | $14.99 | 165 86% | 5.0k | $74k (exactly $74,200) | lexy.zip | |
| | ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles | · EA | $8.99 | 192 96% | 5.8k | $52k (exactly $51,782) | Tomas Sala |
| | Void Marauders | $13.99 | 106 77% | 3.2k | $44k (exactly $44,488) | Autarca | |
| | Red Rogue Sea | $16.99 | 53 64% | 1.6k | $27k (exactly $27,014) | Firemage Studios | |
| | Deep Space Outpost | $15.99 | 32 71% | 960 | $15k (exactly $15,350) | Niris Games | |
| | Reclaim The Sea | $11.99 | 41 75% | 1.2k | $15k (exactly $14,748) | 1LastGame |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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