Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Pirates

Only 17 developers shipped a Pirate Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Salt 2: Shores of Gold, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 51 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $18k → $44k → $3.3k (still earning) → $52k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Median $15k (exactly $15,350)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 49
Announced 51
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,372 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Space Pirates And Zombies 2 older $19.99 2,734 78% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,639,580) MinMax Games Ltd.
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles older $19.99 1,381 85% 41k $828k (exactly $828,186) Tomas Sala
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Space Pirates and Zombies older $9.99 2,231 91% 67k $669k (exactly $668,631) MinMax Games Ltd.
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Last Pirates: Die Together · EA $7.99 325 76% 9.8k $78k (exactly $77,902) RetroStyle Games
Dig, Dig, Die $7.99 321 64% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Alice Games
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Red Rogue Sea $16.99 53 64% 1.6k $27k (exactly $27,014) Firemage Studios
Deep Space Outpost $15.99 32 71% 960 $15k (exactly $15,350) Niris Games
Reclaim The Sea $11.99 41 75% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) 1LastGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.