Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Artificial Intelligence

Of 56 developers who shipped an AI Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×691 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 112 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 112 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $19k → $5.8k → $7.2k → $9.4k → $1.5k → $2.5k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $420 (exactly $420)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $53,347)
Top 5% $328k (exactly $328,046)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 163
Announced 112
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Simulation, Management
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 6,241 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WorldBox - God Simulator 2021 · EA · $31M Wobbledogs 2022 · $8.3M The Sapling 2019 · EA · $1.0M Fantasy Map Simulator 2024 · EA · $1.0M GERONIMO 2026 · EA · $760k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Wobbledogs older $19.99 13,770 98% 413k $8.3M (exactly $8,257,869) Animal Uprising
The Sapling · EA older $17.99 1,922 89% 58k $1.0M (exactly $1,037,303) Wessel Stoop
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
GERONIMO · EA $19.99 1,267 81% 38k $760k (exactly $759,820) Dark Matter Studios
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox
AI Roguelite older $14.99 597 83% 18k $268k (exactly $268,471) Max Loh
Thrive · EA older $4.99 1,680 92% 50k $251k (exactly $251,496) Revolutionary Games Studio
Settlements Rising $18.99 416 80% 12k $237k (exactly $236,995) The Catalyst Crew
Learning Factory $14.99 390 84% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) Luden.io
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios
C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) $6.99 777 87% 23k $163k (exactly $162,937) BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK
Widget Inc. $4.99 761 84% 23k $114k (exactly $113,922) Leaping Turtle
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Meowgic $7.99 462 79% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) Lazy Turtle Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.