Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Historical

Of 39 developers who shipped a Historical Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.4M, ×5501 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 91 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 91 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $8.8k → $13k → $3.6k → $7.2k → $86k → $13k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $86,342)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 104
Announced 91
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, City Builder
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 27,195 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.2k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $3.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.2k. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Banished 2014 · $23M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Master of Command 2025 · $3.5M Mashinky 2018 · EA · $1.8M Ancient Cities 2023 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Mashinky · EA older $24.99 2,361 84% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,042) Jan Zelený
Ancient Cities older $29.99 1,904 64% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,029) Uncasual Games
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Train Fever older $19.99 2,765 61% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,170) Urban Games
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Eyes of War $14.99 268 77% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Good Mood Games
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
Outside the Blocks $14.99 192 87% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Michał Kubas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.