Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Crime

Only 16 developers shipped a Crime Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Precinct, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11228 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 39 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $599 (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $420 (exactly $420)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,316)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 33
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Investigation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 9,259 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 39 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Due Process · EA older $9.99 6,558 83% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,965,433) Giant Enemy Crab
CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience older $19.99 2,596 91% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) Delve Interactive
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
Jackal $14.99 596 88% 18k $268k (exactly $268,021) Transhuman Design
The Swindle older $14.99 502 64% 15k $226k (exactly $225,749) Size Five Games
Vaudeville $19.99 283 48% 8.5k $170k (exactly $169,715) Bumblebee Studios
GUARDS! older $9.99 418 68% 13k $125k (exactly $125,275) WYLDERZONE, Lowkey GameDev
DROP - System Breach older $9.99 178 86% 5.3k $53k (exactly $53,347) Etherfield Studio
BEHEMOTH $3.99 412 88% 12k $49k (exactly $49,316) The Behemoth
Femme Fatality $7.99 66 89% 2.0k $16k (exactly $15,820) Jeistar
SusDoku: Clues & Suspects $4.99 37 35% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) MyNeuronal
One Way Mirror: AI · EA $14.99 7 85% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sh… (Pigi the Wizard and the Feral Yellow Sheep)
Silly Suspects · EA $7.99 12 75% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Classy Games
Cloak And Coin · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) netDOT
Bjois $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Technolithic Softworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.