Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Post-apocalyptic

Of 112 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 273 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2299 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 273 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 273 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $3.7k → $135k → $8.1k → $899 → $3.6k → $4.8k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,251)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 290
Announced 273
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Base Building, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 385,556 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 273 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
BlazBlue Entropy Effect older $19.99 30,410 94% 912k $18M (exactly $18,236,877) 91Act
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Terra Nil older $24.99 8,035 87% 241k $6.0M (exactly $6,023,840) Free Lives, Clockwork Acorn
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
GRAIN ROT $9.99 1,845 88% 55k $553k (exactly $552,946) Beck & Branch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.