Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Medieval

Of 172 developers who shipped a Medieval Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 340 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×8.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×788 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 340 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 340 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 172
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $1.5k → $3.7k → $3.6k → $7.3k → $2.7k → $4.0k (still earning) → $2.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 172
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,158)
Top 5% $375k (exactly $374,507)
Developers, 2 yr 172
Released games 427
Announced 340
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 44,843 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 340 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Tiny Glade $14.99 22,642 97% 679k $10M (exactly $10,182,107) Pounce Light
Kingdoms Reborn · EA older $19.99 8,862 90% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,314,541) Earthshine
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Heroes of Hammerwatch II $19.99 5,806 82% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,481,858) Crackshell
Rogue Tower older $14.99 5,772 82% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,595,668) Die of Death Games
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Lucky Tower Ultimate $14.99 2,281 94% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,766) Studio Seufz
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
City Tales - Medieval Era $22.99 543 90% 16k $375k (exactly $374,507) Irregular Shapes
RAIDBORN $24.99 431 66% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Phodex Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.