Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Mystery

Of 105 developers who shipped a Mystery Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 198 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2196 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 198 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 198 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 105
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $2.5k → $7.5k → $1.3k → $1.7k → $959 → $1.0k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 105
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $960 (exactly $960)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,855)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256)
Developers, 2 yr 105
Released games 213
Announced 198
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.45

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$6.45 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.45.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 344,495 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $960, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 198 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

PEAK 2025 · $72M Content Warning 2024 · $17M Pacify 2019 · $4.9M Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M A Game About Digging A Hole™ 2025 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Pacify older $4.99 32,921 86% 988k $4.9M (exactly $4,928,274) Shawn Hitchcock
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
The Classrooms · EA older $12.99 3,040 89% 91k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,688) Xefier Games, Hillcrest Games Inc.
Murky Divers $8.99 3,981 87% 119k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) Embers
Dark Hours $9.99 3,481 81% 104k $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) Piece of Cake studios
Withering Rooms older $24.99 1,209 96% 36k $906k (exactly $906,387) Moonless Formless
DEAD LETTER DEPT. $14.99 1,777 95% 53k $799k (exactly $799,117) Mike Monroe, Belief Engine
UnderMine 2 · EA $19.99 828 75% 25k $497k (exactly $496,552) Thorium
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
NO-SKIN $6.99 1,227 95% 37k $257k (exactly $257,302) NoEye-Soft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.