Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Trains

Of 22 developers who shipped a Train Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $30k, ×47 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2693 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 47.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 35 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $56k → $56k → $99k → $11k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $7.4k (exactly $7,368)
Median $30k (exactly $29,680)
Top 25% $196k (exactly $195,693)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 48
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Automation, Base Building
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Abstract
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 18,873 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.4k, median $30k, 1 in 4 over $190k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.4k. 3 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Derail Valley 2019 · EA · $11M Transport Fever 2016 · $8.3M Unrailed! 2020 · $8.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Unrailed! older $19.99 13,789 93% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) Indoor Astronaut
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Mashinky · EA older $24.99 2,361 84% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,042) Jan Zelený
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Train Fever older $19.99 2,765 61% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,170) Urban Games
Unrailed 2: Back on Track $19.99 1,794 88% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,862) Indoor Astronaut
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Trainatic $5.99 1,089 89% 33k $196k (exactly $195,693) Ryan Forrester
EverRail · EA $14.99 372 69% 11k $167k (exactly $167,288) Aesir Interactive
Islands & Trains $6.99 553 89% 17k $116k (exactly $115,964) Akos Makovics
Super Loco World - Cozy Train Automation $9.99 329 76% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,601) Andrii Bychkovskyi
Infinite Rails · EA $17.99 104 88% 3.1k $56k (exactly $56,129) Benjamin Voráč

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.