Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Lovecraftian

Of 34 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×25 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×4642 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 67 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 67 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $47k → $7.0k → $33k → $29k → $1.2k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $12k (exactly $11,976)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,851)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 89
Announced 67
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 23,371 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Remnant: From the Ashes 2019 · $57M Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M Magicraft 2024 · $7.2M Labyrinthine 2023 · $4.1M Curious Expedition 2 2021 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Katanaut $17.99 484 88% 15k $261k (exactly $261,215) Voidmaw
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
RailGods of Hysterra · EA $19.99 290 51% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) Troglobytes Games
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
Gods vs Horrors $14.99 254 75% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Oriol Cosp Games
Cyclopean: The Great Abyss $9.99 163 89% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,851) Schmidt Workshops
Luck & Loot $7.99 138 90% 4.1k $33k (exactly $33,079) SMARTcreative

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.