Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Spaceships

Only 16 developers shipped a Spaceship Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ostranauts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 15 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $178k → $20k → $1.8k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,278)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 29
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 4,415 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Space Pirates and Zombies older $9.99 2,231 91% 67k $669k (exactly $668,631) MinMax Games Ltd.
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Fabular: Once Upon a Spacetime · EA older $14.99 119 80% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Spiritus Games
Psycho Starship Rampage older $9.99 128 83% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) Ballistic Frogs
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Stellar Raiders $9.99 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Five Head Games
Periapsis: Gravity Slingshot $5.99 27 81% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) PcZ Games
Hired Stars · EA $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Mark Kaps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.